What is Futures Betting? Futures Betting Explained

Futures betting is an exciting way to engage with long-term outcomes in sports, particularly in the NFL. With futures bets, you are wagering on the outcome of an entire season rather than individual games. These bets focus on significant events like which team will win their division, conference, or even the Super Bowl. Since these bets are made well before the season (or during the early stages of the season), they often come with attractive odds and the potential for big payouts if your bet hits.

In this guide, we’ll explain how futures betting works, the potential rewards, and strategies to consider when making these long-term wagers.

How Futures Betting Works

Futures betting is just what it sounds like you are betting on the future outcome of a season or tournament. Instead of betting on individual games, you place a wager on events that will happen much later, such as who will win a championship or which player will earn an award.

Some common types of futures bets in the NFL include:

Division Winner: Betting on which team will finish first in their division.
Conference Champion: Betting on which team will win the NFC or AFC Championship.
Super Bowl Winner: Betting on which team will win the Super Bowl.

These bets are usually available before the season starts and are adjusted throughout the season as teams perform. The earlier you place your bet, the higher the potential payout, especially if you’re backing a team that is considered a long shot.

Example of a Futures Bet

Let’s say before the NFL season begins, you believe the Dallas Cowboys have a strong chance to win the Super Bowl. At the time, the sportsbook offers odds of +800 for the Cowboys to win it all. If you place a $100 bet on the Cowboys and they win the Super Bowl, you would receive $800 in profit, plus your initial $100 stake, for a total payout of $900.

Odds: +800
Bet: $100
Payout if they win: $800 (profit) + $100 (stake) = $900

The reason futures bets have such high payouts is that they involve significant uncertainty. Predicting the Super Bowl winner before the season starts is difficult, and the odds reflect the challenge of making such long-term predictions.

Why Futures Bets Offer Higher Payouts

The appeal of futures betting lies in its potential for large payouts. Teams with uncertain prospects or long odds can provide substantial returns if they manage to perform well and win a championship. For example, the odds for a Super Bowl favorite like the New England Patriots might be +375, meaning you would win $375 for every $100 wagered if they win. On the other hand, a team like the San Francisco 49ers, which may be seen as a longshot during a rebuilding season, could have odds as high as +40000 to win the Super Bowl. A $100 bet on such a longshot would yield $40,000 if they defy the odds and win it all.

Because futures bets are placed well in advance, sportsbooks offer enticing odds to compensate for the high level of risk and uncertainty. Bettors take a gamble not only on a team’s current strength but also on their ability to stay healthy and maintain consistent performance throughout the season.

Types of NFL Futures Bets

Futures betting covers a wide range of long-term outcomes in the NFL. Here are some of the most popular futures bets:

Division Winner

Example: Betting on the Philadelphia Eagles to win the NFC East.
- Odds might be +250, meaning a $100 bet would pay out $250 if the Eagles win the division.

Conference Champion

Example: Betting on the Kansas City Chiefs to win the AFC Championship.
- Odds could be +300, so a $100 bet would win $300 if the Chiefs win the AFC.

Super Bowl Champion

Example: Betting on the Green Bay Packers to win the Super Bowl.
- Odds might be +1200, so a $100 bet would return $1,200 in profit if the Packers win the Super Bowl.

Regular Season Wins Over/Under

Example: Betting on whether the Buffalo Bills will win more or fewer than 10.5 games during the regular season.
- This futures bet allows you to wager on a team’s win total, with odds typically set around -110 for both the over and the under.

Player Futures

MVP: Betting on which player will win the league’s MVP award.
- Example: If Patrick Mahomes is listed at +500 to win MVP, a $100 bet would return $500 if he wins the award.
Rookie of the Year: Wagering on which rookie will stand out as the best in their first season.

Longshot Futures Bets and Their Payouts

Futures bets can be especially tempting when betting on longshot teams. These are teams that aren’t expected to perform well, but if they exceed expectations, they provide a significant payout. For instance, a team like the San Francisco 49ers during a rebuilding year might have futures odds like:

+2700 to win the division.
+12500 to win the NFC.
+40000 to win the Super Bowl.

If you place a $100 bet on the 49ers to win the Super Bowl at +40000 odds, you would win $40,000 if they pull off the miracle and win the championship. These types of bets are high-risk, but they offer massive rewards if you’re willing to take a chance on an underdog team.

Strategies for Futures Betting

While futures betting can be thrilling, it requires a different approach than typical game-to-game wagers. Here are some strategies to consider:

Timing is Key

The best time to place a futures bet is often before the season starts, as this is when you’ll get the most favorable odds. Once the season begins and teams start performing well, their odds will shorten, offering less value. However, if you wait until mid-season, you might gain more insight into a team’s potential, but you’ll likely get lower odds.

Consider Injuries and Depth

When placing a futures bet, it’s essential to consider the team’s depth and how they might handle injuries. In the NFL, injuries to key players like the starting quarterback can derail a season, so a team with a strong bench might be a safer bet.

Hedge Your Bets

If your futures bet is still in play near the end of the season, consider hedging your bet. For example, if you have a bet on a longshot team to win the Super Bowl, but they’ve made it to the playoffs, you can place smaller bets on other playoff teams to guarantee some profit no matter the outcome.

Focus on Value, Not Just Favorites

While it can be tempting to bet on favorites, such as the New England Patriots or Kansas City Chiefs, the odds for favorites tend to offer lower payouts. It’s often more profitable to look for value bets—teams that are under the radar but have the potential to outperform expectations.

Diversify Your Bets

Don’t put all your money on one futures bet. Spread out your bets across several teams or categories, such as division winners, conference champions, and player awards. This diversification can increase your chances of winning something by the end of the season.

Conclusion

Futures betting is a fun and potentially lucrative way to engage with sports, particularly in the NFL. By placing bets on long-term outcomes like division winners, conference champions, and Super Bowl victors, you can enjoy season-long excitement with the possibility of large payouts. While futures bets are riskier than traditional game-to-game betting, they offer attractive odds and the chance to win big if you make the right call.

The key to success in futures betting lies in timing, research, and managing your risk. By identifying value early, considering potential injuries, and staying disciplined, you can make the most of futures betting opportunities.

Frequently Asked Questions (FAQs)

What is futures betting?

Futures betting involves placing bets on long-term outcomes, like who will win a division, conference, or the Super Bowl.

When can I place a futures bet?

You can place futures bets before the season starts, and they remain available throughout the season with changing odds based on team performance.

What types of futures bets can I make in the NFL?

Popular NFL futures bets include division winners, conference champions, Super Bowl winners, regular season win totals, and player awards like MVP.

Why do futures bets offer high payouts?

Since there’s a lot of uncertainty when betting on long-term outcomes, sportsbooks offer higher payouts to compensate for the risk.

How do futures odds work?

Futures odds are shown as a + number, like +500. A $100 bet at those odds would win $500 if your bet hits.